Key findings
- Between January 2015 and September 2020, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange sold 222,922 tonnes of clean coffee for US$845 million, at an average of US$190 per 50 kg bag.
- Prices peaked in 2016/17 (US$231) and fell to US$147 in 2018/19, the lowest season average in the period, before recovering to US$188 in 2019/20.
- Volumes swung between 45,296 tonnes (2015/16) and 25,093 tonnes (2019/20). The value of coffee sold fell from US$172 million in 2016/17 to US$94 million in 2019/20.
- The premium for AA over AB widened from 13% in 2015/16 to 43% in 2019/20. When prices fell, the lower grades lost the most.
- Prices follow a clear seasonal pattern: in five of six seasons the best sale average came in January or February, and in every season the lowest came between April and June.
- 27% of the volume was sold as bulked lots that mix several growers' coffee, so it cannot be traced to a single factory or estate.
Prices and volumes by season
| Season | Auctions | Tonnes sold | Value (US$ m) | Avg price (US$/50 kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014/15* | 29 | 29,877 | 118.8 | |
| 2015/16 | 39 | 45,296 | 172.8 | |
| 2016/17 | 32 | 37,352 | 172.3 | |
| 2017/18 | 40 | 41,481 | 158.6 | |
| 2018/19 | 38 | 43,824 | 129.0 | |
| 2019/20 | 26 | 25,093 | 94.4 |
* Partial season: records start on 27 January 2015.
Prices at the Nairobi auction broadly follow world Arabica prices, but quality drives most of the variation. In 2018/19 world coffee prices hit multi-year lows, and Kenyan averages fell by more than a third from their 2016/17 peak. Volumes do not simply follow price. They depend on the size of each harvest, and on how much coffee goes through direct sales instead of the auction.
Top grades pulled away from the rest
The gap between the grades widened sharply after 2016/17. AA held its value much better than AB and C. For growers, this makes quality (picking ripe cherry, careful processing and grading) worth more than ever.
| Season | AA | AB | C | AA over AB | AB over C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014/15 | 270 | 223 | 180 | +21% | +24% |
| 2015/16 | 255 | 226 | 179 | +13% | +26% |
| 2016/17 | 323 | 276 | 223 | +17% | +23% |
| 2017/18 | 325 | 228 | 162 | +43% | +41% |
| 2018/19 | 232 | 164 | 111 | +41% | +48% |
| 2019/20 | 304 | 213 | 152 | +43% | +40% |
See the guide to Kenyan coffee grades for what each grade means.
When to sell: prices swing within each season
The average price at individual auctions varies a lot within a season. The early-season sales in January and February, which carry the best main-crop coffee, usually fetch the highest averages. The April–June sales, with more fly-crop and lower-grade lots, fetch the lowest. Part of this is the grade mix rather than the market itself, but it matters for when cooperatives offer their best lots.
| Season | Lowest sale | Date | Highest sale | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014/15 | 150 | 28 Apr 2015 | 280 | 17 Feb 2015 |
| 2015/16 | 116 | 7 Jun 2016 | 246 | 9 Feb 2016 |
| 2016/17 | 123 | 25 Apr 2017 | 306 | 21 Feb 2017 |
| 2017/18 | 98 | 15 May 2018 | 293 | 13 Feb 2018 |
| 2018/19 | 76 | 30 Apr 2019 | 244 | 22 Jan 2019 |
| 2019/20 | 110 | 5 May 2020 | 235 | 18 Aug 2020 |
What it means
- For growers and cooperatives: grade mix explains a large part of the price gap between growers. Raising the share of AA and AB, and reducing mbuni and ungraded coffee, has the biggest effect on income. Compare your own results on your grower page.
- For buyers: early-season auctions carry the best lots and the strongest competition. Later sales can offer value in AB and PB.
- For policymakers: most coffee still sold as anonymous bulk lots reduces traceability, at a time when buyers and the EU deforestation rules increasingly demand it.
Explore the full data on the prices page, and read the companion reports on prices by county and buyer concentration.
Method: figures are computed from 131,378 lots sold at 204 Nairobi Coffee Exchange auctions. Prices are volume-weighted averages in US dollars per 50 kg bag of clean coffee. Seasons run from October to September; 2014/15 starts in January 2015. Direct sales outside the auction are not included. Grower, county and type are matched through the growers code on each lot. © MyKahawa. You may quote this report with attribution and a link to mykahawa.org.
Need deeper analysis?
MyKahawa can prepare custom analysis of Kenyan coffee prices, buyers and growers, for a cooperative, a county, a grade or a buyer. Get in touch.